New Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Structures Should Ensure Availability of Mortgage Capital and Protect Taxpayer Dollars, Says NAR

Washington, March 23, 2010

Government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should be restructured as government-chartered, non-shareholder owned authorities, the National Association of Realtors® said in congressional testimony today.


“We want to ensure a flow of capital into the mortgage market regardless of the state of the market or economy,” Vince Malta, NAR vice president and liaison to government affairs, testified to the House Financial Services Committee. “The new Fannie and Freddie must ensure there is always mortgage capital available for creditworthy buyers and that taxpayer dollars are protected.”


In outlining NAR’s proposal, Malta cautioned Congress and the administration about moving too quickly in restructuring the GSEs. “The housing recovery is still too fragile for the government to completely step away, and any disruption in the marketplace now by doing something too radical would be harmful,” he said. “Our goal is to help Congress and our industry design a secondary mortgage model that will serve America’s best interest today, and in the future.”


Neither a fully privatized entity nor a fully nationalized structure for the secondary mortgage market giants effectively addresses the critical issues of loan availability and taxpayer protection, he said. A fully private entity would foster mortgage products more aligned with business goals rather than the nation’s housing policy for consumers. “In difficult markets, like today’s, private lenders have not been willing to make loans without government backing,” said Malta.


A fully federal structure would put taxpayers at risk. “We want to eliminate any scenario that would place taxpayers on the hook to protect these entities. And to combine the two, or merge them with Ginnie Mae, would remove competition in the secondary market, and the new entity could lose focus on it missions to serve low- and moderate-income families and maintain liquidity in the mortgage markets,” he said.



The new authorities should be subject to tighter regulations on products, profitability and minimal, retained portfolio practices in a way to ensure protection of taxpayer monies. The new entities would also concentrate on standard mortgage products that are the foundation of the housing finance market.


“While that might curtail some private participation and alternative products in this market, we believe privates will offer innovations that meet consumer needs. The new entities would focus on safe mortgage products, including 15- and 30-year fixed rate mortgages and traditional adjustable rate mortgages.”

Fixer-Upper Financing: 203k Program Provides Buyers with Renovation Funds

The word “as-is” can indeed be one scary phrase. Especially when buying a home in today’s market where foreclosures and short sales that need fix-up work are plentiful.

But a little-known Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loan program that’s been around since 1978 can help take the sting out of “as-is.” Only 219 borrowers took advantage of the FHA’s 203k program in 2009. Not that many lending and real estate professionals are aware of the program, say observers.

Last year, Tom Meyer found a classic Oakland, Calif., home built in 1925 near Mills College he liked a lot. As a short sale it was priced right and about half the original asking price. Trouble was, the place needed some fix-up work—foundation improvements, dry rot work, a new roof over the garage and other improvements.

With the help of the FHA’s 203k renovation financing loan program, Meyer folded about $100,000 worth of repairs and improvements into his $422,000 mortgage. He had bought the home for $320,000. “I would not be able to pay a contractor $100,000 and buy a house at the same time,” said Meyer, who works in corporate media at Shaklee’s Pleasanton headquarters. “It had been essentially allowed to start falling apart over the last 20 years.”

He had rented in San Francisco for 25 years before moving into his new digs last September with his girlfriend, Cathy Keating. “We like old houses, and a great benefit of this program is that it helped us keep a beautiful but deteriorating house from deteriorating further. With the work we did, we expect it to still be standing and beautiful 80 years from now,” he said.

Renovation financing through the 203k program allows the costs of needed repairs and improvements to be included in the FHA federally-insured loan amount instead of having the buyer come up with cash or a separate loan to do the work.

“This is a perfect loan for an as-is situation,” said Kristine Marr, a loan officer with Prospect Mortgage in Lafayette, Calif. “It’s not a new loan program, although I think it’s going to have a lot more use today because we have so many foreclosures and bank-owned properties. You go into lots of homes and see people have yanked out stoves and ovens and fixtures and sinks.”

The work has to be done within six months after escrow closes. Borrowers have the option of putting up to six months of mortgage payments on the end of the loan if they don’t want to live in the house while the work is being done.

“Renovation financing is a program that allows you to not only finance the purchase of a home but finance any repairs and/or improvements. It provides buyers with a responsible way to purchase a fixer-upper property,” said Luis C. Munoz, who helped Meyer with the loan and is a renovation loan specialist with the Oakland branch of Mason-McDuffie Mortgage Corp. Munoz also gives presentations about the program at monthly home ownership workshops sponsored by the Unity Council, an Oakland-based nonprofit.

At a time when equity loans are hard to get, the program can also be used as a refinancing vehicle for borrowers who want to do repairs and improvements, provided the value of the home is greater than the value of the loan. “At the same time as you refinance, you pop in the extra dollars you need for whatever you want to do,” Marr said.

FHA home loans require certain health and safety standards be met and that needed repairs identified during the inspection process be completed before escrow closes. However, minor repairs and improvements costing between $5,000 and $15,000 can be done after escrow closes for borrowers who opt for a streamlined repair program.

A 203k loan can help buyers finance both minor and major repairs and improvements. It can also help buyers compete with investors when bidding for short sales and foreclosures, said Sheri Powers, director of the Homeownership Center at Unity Council.

The loans can also be used to pay for improvements such as new appliances, second-story additions, remodeled kitchens and bathrooms, and skylights, just to name a few examples. “Property repairs cost money and they want to make sure people using their loan program are going to be in the home in long run and not just the short run,” Powers said.

The loans have become more popular since home prices started falling and FHA lending limits were raised a couple years ago but are still a tiny sliver of overall FHA loan volume. Last year, 203k loans accounted for 219 mortgages in the Bay Area, compared to 35 in 2008, one in 2007 and none in 2005 and 2006, according to Department of Housing and Urban Development statistics. “It’s making a comeback,” said Powers.

Marr said that 203k financing is not for everyone. A buyer will have to work with contractors and may have to wait several months before moving in, she said. And there is no guarantee they won’t be outbid by an investor for the property. “A lot of listing agents are preferring the investors, because the investors tend to be all cash or 50% cash. That’s always hard to compete with,” she said.

NAR Urges Congress, Administration to Approach Changing FHA Slowly

The National Association of Realtors® urged Congress and the administration to move cautiously before making changes to the Federal Housing Administration program that has served the needs of millions of American families for more than 75 years without needing a federal appropriation.

FHA remains financially strong because it has taken steps to ensure solid underwriting standards and responsible lending practices, said Charles McMillan, NAR immediate past president, in testimony before the House Subcommittee on Housing and Community Opportunity today.

“As the leading advocate for housing issues, NAR believes that one of the best ways Congress can help strengthen FHA is to quickly consider and pass legislation that would make current loan limits permanent,” McMillan said. “It’s important to note that higher balance FHA loans perform better than lower balance ones. While some argue that higher balance loans put taxpayers at risk, such loans actually strengthen the program and reduce risk to the fund.”

NAR strongly supports H.R. 2483, the “Increasing Homeownership Opportunities Act.” Current FHA loan limits are as high as $729,750 in high-cost areas, and are set to expire at the end of the year and revert to lower amounts, greatly hindering the housing recovery process. A decrease of current limits would adversely affect 612 counties in 40 states and the District of Columbia.

Explaining that FHA has played an important role in the recent housing and economic crisis by filing the gap left by private lenders, McMillan said FHA insured almost 30 percent of single-family mortgages in 2009 and more than 50 percent of first-time buyer loans. “Historically, FHA’s market share has hovered between 10 and 15 percent of all loans. And when the private market is strong enough to return, we welcome a reduced FHA market share,” he said.

McMillan said NAR strongly opposes H.R. 3706 that would raise the FHA downpayment. “While that would increase an individual’s investment in the home, it would not add a penny to FHA’s reserves and would disenfranchise many FHA borrowers,” he said.

NAR also opposes a new FHA initiative that increased the up-front mortgage insurance premium (MIP) from 1.75 percent to 2.25 percent because it adds to the closing costs home buyers already face. NAR supports legislation to reasonably increase the annual MIP to replace FHA capital reserves, but in turn, FHA should reduce the up-front premium due at the closing table.

McMillan said NAR was also concerned that FHA wanted to decrease seller concessions to 3 percent. Reducing seller concessions could put homeownership out of reach for many buyers, he said, because it could require buyers to pay more at closing.

McMillan applauded FHA’s stepped up enforcement and oversight of lenders making FHA loans. In 2009, FHA removed approval of or suspended 274 lenders. “Realtors® support adding more tools to help FHA protect borrowers and taxpayers,” he said.

Real Relief for Upside Down Home Owners

RISMEDIA, March 9, 2010—Forget loan modifications, short sales, and “jingle mail”! If you are one of an estimated 50 to 60 million homeowners whose mortgage is part of a securitized pool, the law is on your side and everyday more and more people are deciding to exercise their rights with regard to the documents they signed.

There is much more contained within those documents and pooling and servicing agreements that govern the pools than just the borrowers promise to pay. And, there are laws that must be adhered to by the lender of the money.

As it turns out, virtually all of the securitized private label loans were part of a massive and ongoing fraud upon both the borrower and the investor. And, the fraud continues as the pretender lenders force more defaults, stop making payments to the pools, collect on the credit default swaps, and top it all off by seizing the underlying assets (only if they can make additional money on them) and keeping any proceeds for themselves.

What borrowers and investors agreed to and what they actually got are at odds, and these discrepancies raise serious legal issues including, but not limited to, Truth In Lending Violations, Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act Violations, Fraud, Bait and Switch, illegal kickbacks involving the borrower, and out right fraud and conversion upon the investor.

In the cases of loans such as a 2/28, pick-a-pay and option arm, their very existence is prima facie evidence of predatory lending and fraud upon the investors.

Nor are we talking about a small amount of money or a technicality. We are talking about a complex system of deceit by financial intermediaries that can turn a single modest home loan into millions of dollars in profit for them.

The Worse the Loan the More They Can Make

Suppose a buyer actually qualifies for a $300,000 fully amortized, fixed rate loan at 5%.

But, right at the end of the process the underwriter calls the loan officer and says something like this;

“We’ve just had a change to our underwriting guidelines and we aren’t going to fund the loan.”

This is really funny because the loan is already funded. Now, it’s time to kick up the profits. Of course, the loan officer’s emotions run the full range from disbelief to anger to fear. “Why?” She pleads.

Underwriter: “His ratios. He needs a lower monthly payment. Resubmit in our new super-duper, magical flex loan with the built in implosion feature.”

Now, before we run out and lynch a bunch of loan officers, this is what they were given to work with and trained to do. They were as indoctrinated into this as if they had drunk the cool aid. If it makes you feel better, they got pushed into these loans too. I get a lot of email from loan originators and real estate agents who often feel embarrassed about their choices, but back then we didn’t know that it was just a giant Ponzi scheme.

The loan product is determined by an underwriter. The perception is that the only purpose for underwriting is to determine the credit worthiness of the borrower and the value of the security. But, the underwriting process actually yields far more valuable information. It also reveals the borrower’s default probability and numerous details about their behavior. Knowledge of the borrower’s behavior combined with negative features in the loan allowed insiders to project when the loan would default.

Armed with this information, the underwriter is able to “tweak” the loan to increase the Yield Spread Premium and the Service Release Premium, as well as, increase the likelihood of collecting on the credit default swaps. That is the process of putting you into the most profitable loan possible. And, it is where the real predatory lending takes place.

Back to our borrower. By bumping our highly qualified borrower from 5% to 8%, they only increase the likelihood of default; they are able to extract an enormous undisclosed Service Release Premium and a Yield Spread Premium. The Yield Spread Premium is supposed to be disclosed, but often isn’t.

The Service Release Premium is where the real money is, and it’s hidden. The investor provides $480,000 to the financial intermediary in exchange for a five percent annual return of $24,000 plus a guaranteed return of principal.

The financial intermediary only loans our borrower $300,000, but when the rate adjusts to 8%, the investor has his $24,000 annual income, the financial intermediary pockets a $180,000 Service Release Premium, makes up the initial shortfall in the pool payments and buys credit default swaps.

So this is where we really are.

They are not banks. They call themselves banks, but they aren’t banks.

They did not lend you any money. They loaned you someone else’s money.

You don’t owe them any money. Maybe you owe a pension fund or something, maybe not.

You may not owe anyone any money. If the investors recouped their losses from TARP funds, you no longer owe them anything.

They may owe you money. If you were the victim of predatory lending, your damages could be into the hundreds of thousands of dollars, plus legal expenses

They may have no legal right to foreclose on you.

You have a legal right under the terms of your loan agreement and common law to raise the above issues with the true holder of the original note you signed.

Why? Because securitized loans presented an opportunity to commit fraud on both the true lender by skimming, and the borrower by convincing him he should accept a far more expensive loan than the one for which he qualified.

The financial intermediary wrote the pooling and servicing agreements and the credit default swaps. The terms of the pooling and servicing agreement allow the financial intermediary to stop making payments on all loans in the pool and keep the revenue stream from the performing loans when a default occurs within the pool. It also allows the financial intermediary to collect on the credit default swap on the entire pool which is multiples of the loan value of the entire pool.

The game was rigged, but they overlooked one little thing; The Uniform Commercial Code, Chapter 3, 47-3110. The Uniform Commercial Code is replicated in virtually every state, and this section governs who may enforce a note.

Look at this a different way. Suppose you wanted to pay off your loan, but you wanted to be absolutely certain that the money would go to the rightful party so that you would not be subject to someone showing up later claiming you never paid off your note. You have a legal right to know who that party is.

If they cannot satisfy this provision of the UCC, they cannot proceed to foreclose. If you wanted to take the fight to them and see if they can produce the note, this is the law you need to pursue.

Is It the Beginning of the End for Housing Crisis?

RISMEDIA, March 8, 2010—(MCT)—A smaller percentage of mortgages were delinquent and the rate of those entering the foreclosure process slowed in the fourth quarter of 2009, possible signs that the foreclosure crisis that has gripped many of the nation’s housing markets is finally starting to ease, a trade group has reported.

“We are likely seeing the beginning of the end of the unprecedented wave of mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures that started with the subprime defaults in early 2007,” said Jay Brinkmann, chief economist of the Mortgage Bankers Association, in a written statement.

The delinquency rate for mortgages on one- to four-unit residential properties was a seasonally adjusted 9.47% of all mortgages outstanding in the fourth quarter, down from 9.64% in the third quarter and up from 7.88% in the fourth quarter of 2008, according to the MBA’s quarterly delinquency survey.

Delinquencies include mortgages that are at least one payment or more past due but not yet in foreclosure.

Meanwhile, 1.2% of outstanding mortgages entered the foreclosure process in the fourth quarter, down from 1.42% in the third quarter and up from 1.08% in the fourth quarter of 2008. The percentage of mortgages at some point in the foreclosure process at the end of the fourth quarter was 4.58%, up from 4.47% in the third quarter and 3.3% in the fourth quarter of 2008.

The MBA survey covers about 44.4 million loans on one- to four-unit residential properties, or about 85% of all first-lien residential mortgage loans that are outstanding in the country. No doubt, the foreclosure nightmare isn’t over yet.

The percentages of loans 90 days or more past due and loans in foreclosure process set record highs in the fourth quarter, according to the report. Many of those loans more than 90 days past due are in loan modification programs, and some of them have been seriously delinquent for months waiting for modifications to get finalized.

But the good news is there are fewer problem loans actually entering delinquency—likely a result of fewer layoffs, Brinkmann said. “We normally see a large spike in short-term mortgage delinquencies at the end of the year due to heating bills, Christmas expenditures and other seasonal factors. Not only did we not see that spike but the 30-day delinquencies actually fell by 16 basis points from 3.79% to 3.63%,” he said. He added that the non-seasonally adjusted 30-day delinquency rate has only dropped three times in the past between the third and fourth quarter—”and never by this magnitude.”

Depending on the fate of seriously delinquent mortgages—whether they are cured with modifications or ultimately enter foreclosure—the percentage of mortgages somewhere in the foreclosure process could start to see a gradual decline in the second half of the year, he said during a conference call with reporters.

If normal seasonal patterns hold, there could be a bigger drop in the 30-day delinquency rate in the first quarter of 2010, Brinkmann said. That would be a positive sign for the months and years ahead. “The continued and sizable drop in the 30-day delinquency rate is a concrete sign that the end may be in sight,” he said. “With fewer new loans going bad, the pool of seriously delinquent loans and foreclosures will eventually begin to shrink once the rate at which these problems are resolved exceeds the rate at which new problems come in. “It also gives us growing confidence that the size of the problem now is about as bad as it will get,” he said.

A Golden Opportunity: 203k Program Helps First-Time Buyers Turn Dreams into Reality

RISMEDIA, February 22, 2010—As a first-time home buyer, Jessica Garcia was excited last April to officially begin her home search. She found a home within her price range, completed the lengthy paperwork and paid for the appraisals, only to later be told after four months that the deal would not close.

Out of luck and out of money, Garcia was frustrated, but not defeated. She went back to her Realtor to start the search again. It was then that she found the home she would later purchase. Upon first glance, Garcia liked the home and saw its potential, but didn’t have the upfront money it would take to rehab the home the way it needed to be done.

After some discussion, Garcia’s lender, Kevin Roy with Wells Fargo, realized that she might be able to take advantage of HUD’s 203k program, specifically designed to rehabilitate and repair single-family homes. The 203k is a single mortgage loan that provides funds to purchase a home and make repairs and improvements.

“The home needed a lot of work,” explains Garcia, of North Port, Florida. “The previous owners had pets that had really torn up the carpeting and destroyed the blinds.”

Indeed, the home needed new flooring, carpets and, most importantly, a water softener for its wellwater system. So, when the opportunity arose to take advantage of the 203k program, Garcia was game.

“In the end, it worked out great,” she says. “The credit goes to Kevin because if he hadn’t told me about the 203k program, I would not have had the money to fix the home. All of the money I had was put into the appraisals and fees for the first home that I couldn’t close on.”

Once the transaction was set in motion, Garcia turned to Lowe’s North Port (Florida) store to help her bring her 203k projects to fruition.

“The people at Lowe’s were really great,” lauds Garcia. “I had dealt with a different home improvement retailer in the past, but never had very good experiences. I went to Lowe’s because the people who work there are always friendly and I had heard good things about working with them. The people there really were great—they provided explanations to all of my questions and made my experience easy.”

From the 203k paperwork to guiding her through the program, Garcia credits the Lowe’s team with a job well done. “The team at my Lowe’s was very helpful,” she says. “A couple of people—including manager Mike Cabana—helped me tremendously.”

Prior to closing, Garcia went to the North Port location and chose her products for the 203k projects. Once closing happened in late September, the Lowe’s team prepared for Garcia’s projects, ordering her new carpeting, wood flooring, a water softener and new dishwasher.

“It was amazing,” says Garcia. “The day I closed, I called them and they immediately started ordering the materials and products. Within a few weeks, everything was done.”

According to Garcia, the timing couldn’t have been better. In addition to the improvements she made with her 203k loan, Garcia also took on a few DIY projects herself—including repainting the entire house.

“I decided to put the 203k money into quality carpeting, flooring and, of course, the water softener. I also really needed a dishwasher—the house didn’t have one,” she explains. “The little bit of time I had between ordering the materials and installation was perfect. It gave me just enough time to get all of the painting finished.”

Despite months of worry, confusion and stress, Garcia is now thrilled with her home—and her experience with Lowe’s.

“I am very happy,” says Garcia. “Everyone involved did such a great job and helped me so much…Lowe’s helped me choose exactly what I wanted for my home. I love this house!

“A lot of money goes into buying a home,” she adds. “The 203k program is a great option. It allowed me to do far more than I would have been able to do on my own. As a first-time home buyer with a limited amount of money, it allowed me to do a lot and get exactly what I wanted. Working with Lowe’s was perfect, too. From their affordable prices to the customer service, it was a great experience overall. I would highly recommend both the 203k program and Lowe’s to anybody.”

Short Sale Buyers Face Difficulty Closing Deals Quickly

RISMEDIA, February 19, 2010—(MCT)—Rachel Nacion-Ograyensek and her husband are getting nervous. The house that the two apartment dwellers want to buy—the one with the double oven, pool and tiled patio—may slip away from them.

It’s on the market as a short sale, so the owner can’t act until the mortgage holder approves the discount price. But the Altamonte Springs, Fla. couple insists on buying their first home in time to take advantage of the federal government’s home buyer tax credit, which now expires April 30, 2010.

“The house is our dream house—it’s perfect for us,” Nacion-Ograyensek said. “We are trying to get in on the tax credit, but it’s done in April, and it’s already February. We’ve gotten to the point where we’re passively looking for other houses, but none are quite right.”

Under pressure from the real estate industry, Congress extended and expanded the tax credit last fall. It was to have ended November 30, 2009 and benefit only buyers who had not purchased a home in the past three years. Like the original, the latest version is worth as much as $8,000, but it gives both first-time buyers and qualified existing homeowners until April 30 to secure a contract on a home, and until June 30 to close the deal.

Though real estate agents and homebuilders hope the measure boosts sales, as the previous version was credited with doing, some fear that buyer’s intent on getting a short sale bargain will not make the new deadlines.

In the Orlando area, 67% of Realtors’ existing-home sales in December 2009 were distressed sales—and about half of those were short sales, known for taking at least three months to complete. Even buyers who nail down a contract with the seller by the April 30 deadline can’t be sure the purchase will close within the required two months. “That’s where you get into that riverboat-gambling mentality,” said Jim Ruddy, the longtime real estate agent representing Nacion-Ograyensek and her husband. “Is it worth gambling that $8,000?” At this point in the tax credit countdown, buyers interested in purchasing a short sale must decide whether they are really committed to that property—enough that they would still want to purchase it if they miss the June 30 tax credit deadline, Ruddy said.

Nacion-Ograyensek said she and her husband recently revisited the short sale house in Altamonte Springs and decided it was worth the gamble. The kitchen is ideal for cooking, and the backyard is large enough if they have children or adopt a dog. They have decided to stick with their plan; still, each day that passes makes them more anxious.

In hopes of capturing tax credit-motivated buyers who aren’t focused on distressed properties, Florida’s real estate agents have scheduled an unprecedented statewide open house of properties listed for sale. The event, organized by the Florida Association of Realtors, is set for April 10-11—just two weeks before the tax credit deadline.

Kathleen McIver-Gallagher, chairman of the Orlando Regional Realtor Association, said buyers intent on getting the tax credit should be concerned if they are trying to purchase a short sale through lenders known for slow responses to short sale offers.

As the April tax credit deadline nears, buyers will probably become more interested in homes other than distressed sales, McIver-Gallagher said. “There are plenty of regular homes out there,” she added.

Compounding the delays are new reporting rules that lenders must now follow. Nate Morris, vice president of Thomas Mortgage and Financial Services, said the new requirements involve good faith estimates and HUD closing documents. “It certainly could further complicate things,” said Morris, a board member of the Mortgage Bankers Association of Florida. “I don’t see this working out till the middle of the year. Everyone in the mortgage business talks about it on a daily basis.”

Mortgage Rates Decline; Current 30-Year Fixed Rate at Lowest Level This Year

RISMEDIA, February 18, 2010—The thirty-year fixed mortgage rate on Zillow Mortgage Marketplace is currently 4.79%, down two basis points from 4.81% at this time last week, and at the lowest level since mid-December of last year. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate hovered below 4.85% for most of the last week, but peaked near 4.90%.

Zillow’s real-time mortgage rates are based on thousands of custom mortgage quotes submitted daily to anonymous borrowers through the site, and reflect the most recent changes in the market. These are not marketing rates or a weekly survey.

The rate for 15-year fixed home loans is currently 4.22%, while the rate for 5-1 adjustable rate mortgages is 3.61%.

The volume of mortgage requests in the past week fell 6.7% from the prior week. Of last week’s requests, 31.9% were for refinance loans, 66.3% were for purchase loans and 1.8% were for home equity loans. The prior week, 34.6% of requests were for refinance loans, 63.3% were for purchase loans and 2.1% were for home equity loans.

For more information, visit www.zillow.com.

Four out of 10 Recent Buyers Relied on FHA Loans, Says NAR

According to the most recent Realtors® Confidence Index, 39 percent of recent buyers purchased a home with a Federal Housing Administration-insured loan. Realtors® who took part in the November survey also reported that the number of first-time home buyers continued to climb to 51 percent.

“FHA helps provide affordable mortgage financing to homeowners, particularly first-time home buyers who are so important in drawing down inventory to help stabilize the current housing market,” said NAR President Vicki Cox Golder, owner of Vicki L. Cox & Associates in Tucson, Ariz. “These recent survey results reaffirm that, despite its current challenges, FHA is a critical part of the American housing fabric.”

The RCI results also indicated that distressed sales increased to 33 percent of all home sales last month, and that both investors and first-time home buyers are competing for these properties. The preponderance of distressed properties on the market has also influenced buyers’ perceptions of other homes for sale. Realtors® report that many buyers have pricing expectations that treat every property as if it were in foreclosure.

In addition, Realtors® expressed ongoing concerns with the impact of the Home Valuation Code of Conduct on recent appraisals. According to some survey respondents, inexperienced or out-of-area appraisers continue to rely heavily on sales prices of distressed properties, even when other comps are available.

“As the first, best source for real estate information, Realtors® have their finger on the pulse of current housing trends, and their knowledge and experience offer valuable insights into today’s real estate market,” said Golder. “We know that an economic recovery is not possible without a housing recovery, and we will continue to work with policymakers at all levels to ensure that this happens.”

The RCI is a key indicator of housing market strength based on a monthly survey of more than 50,000 Realtors®; in a typical month there are more than 3,000 usable responses. Participants are asked about their expectations for the demand for homes, price of homes, and other economic conditions.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.2 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

Mortgage News

Mortgage bond prices rose last week pushing mortgage interest rates lower. The bond market rallied following crumbling stocks as the DOW fell 213 points Thursday. Weekly jobless claims came in higher than expected causing unemployment fears to cast a shadow over the state of the economy. In a consumer based economy it is difficult for people to spend money without a job. The producer price index was mixed as the headline figure was higher than expected but the core was lower than expected. For the week interest rates fell by about 1/4 of a discount point.

The Fed meeting Wednesday will be the most important event this week. The Treasury will continue the record auctions with 2-year notes on Tuesday, 5-year notes on Wednesday, and 7-year notes on Thursday. If foreign demand remains decent rates should hold near current levels. However, a drop in foreign demand will likely cause rates to head higher.


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Economic Factors
Economic Indicator Release Date Time Consensus Estimate Analysis
Existing Home Sales Monday, Jan. 25, 2010 Down 8.3% Low importance. An indication of mortgage credit demand. A significant decrease may lead to lower rates.
Consumer Confidence Tuesday, Jan. 26, 2010 52.9 Important. An indication of consumers' willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
New Home Sales Wednesday, Jan. 27, 2010 Up 1.9% Important. An indication of economic strength and credit demand. A decrease may lead to lower rates.
Fed Meeting Adjourns Wednesday, Jan. 27, 2010 No rate adjustment Important. Few expect the Fed to change rates, but some volatility may surround the adjournment of this meeting.
Durable Goods Orders Thursday, Jan. 28, 2010 Up 2.0% Important. An indication of the demand for "big ticket" items. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Q4 Advance GDP Friday, Jan. 29, 2010 Up 4.5% Very important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Q4 Employment Cost Index Friday, Jan. 29, 2010 Up 0.4% Very important. A measure of wage inflation. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Friday, Jan. 29, 2010 73.0 Important. An indication of consumers' willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.


Fed Focus

The United States central bank, the Federal Reserve, coordinates the borrowing and lending activities of federally chartered banks. The principal reason the Federal Reserve was created was to reduce severe financial crises. One way of accomplishing this goal is to control the amount of money that flows through the economy. By manipulating the US money supply, the Fed influences inflation, unemployment, and the level of US economic activity. The Fed has a variety of tools that it uses to control the money supply, but its chief policy tool is the manipulation of short-term interest rates.

All eyes will be focused on the Federal Open Market Committee meeting Wednesday. No rate changes are expected. However, many analysts and traders believe rate hikes are on the horizon. Futures contracts show traders are pricing in a 77% chance the Fed will raise rates by November. Others argue those positions will be wrong because the economy isn't strong enough for the Fed to change rates.

A cautious approach to float/lock decisions is prudent heading into the Fed meeting this week. Be prepared for potential market volatility.

WR Starkey Mortgage

Last chance to refinance below 5%

By Les Christie, staff writerJanuary 7, 2010: 11:26 AM ET


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- If you want to refinance your mortgage into a loan with a sub-5% interest rate, better hurry. Your window of opportunity is closing fast.

Lenders are still advertising rock-bottom interest rates, but for most borrowers, rates are rapidly rising into the 5%-plus category.

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During the week of Jan. 7, the average 30-year, fixed-rate loan closed at 5.09%, according to mortgage giant Freddie Mac. That is significantly higher than the 4.71% it averaged at the beginning of the month, and experts say rates will go higher yet.

"Interest rates are up and they're not going to go down below 5% again," said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Economy.com, not for a while at least.

While homebuyers are still excited about these low mortgage rates, people who already have a loan and want to lower their costs are scrambling to lock in.

Refinancers act when the difference between the rate they're currently paying and the new one is at least a point or two wide, otherwise the costs of going through the refinancing wipes out any savings. In fact as rates rose in December, refinancings plunged, down more than 30%, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

A big reason for the jump is that a government program that has kept rates very low is winding to a close. The Federal Reserve has been purchasing mortgage-backed securities since early 2009, scooping up as much as $1.25 trillion worth. That has dampened rate increases by providing a ready market for the securities.

But the Fed's program lapses on March 31, when it cedes the playing field to private investors, who will almost surely demand higher rates. The Fed has already been slowing its purchasing, and that has corresponded with the recent rate increases.

As Treasurys go . . .
Not just mortgage rates have turned north. Treasury yields have as well, another indication that mortgage rates are headed skyward.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury has grown steeply over the past few weeks. It stood at 3.2% at the beginning of December and has soared to 3.84% as of Tuesday, a 20% jump.

Mortgage interest does not track Treasury yields in lockstep, but the two tend to mirror each other's movements.

Mortgage securities rates are always higher than Treasury yields because investors demand a premium above practically risk-free Treasurys.

The difference between mortgage rates and Treasury yields is usually somewhere near 1.7 percentage points, according to Keith Gumbinger of HSH Associated, a publisher of mortgage information. The current spread of about 1.2 percentage points is quite narrow.

That's bound to change, according to David Crowe, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders. He believes mortgage rates will go up to about 5.5% by late summer. But other factors could push them into a larger-than-expected jump.

Economy bouncing back
For example, as the economy improves (it's hoped), businesses will expand production, hire new workers and open new sales outlets. All that requires borrowing in capital markets and the demand for lending will expand interest rates of all kinds.

A recovering economy also boosts corporate profits, making stocks a better bet for investors.

"Stocks tend to do better when the economy improves," said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist for PNC Financial Services. "Mortgage rates will rise to attract investment."

Hoffman's forecast is for rates to stay quite constant the rest of the winter and then elevate gradually during the spring buying season, the busiest time of year for home sales. He said they should hit about 5.5% by the end of June.

After that, the increases will slow, according to Hoffman, but still approach 6% toward the end of the year. He believes they'll cap at around 5.75% and are not likely to fall back to the 5% level again.

The Time is Now!

No more extensions of tax credit for first-time home buyers

The provision that puts up to $8,000 in buyers' pockets won't be renewed a third time, industry leaders and lawmakers say.
By Lew Sichelman

Reporting from Washington - Home buyers hoping to take advantage of a new or extended tax credit should not procrastinate: This third bite at the apple will be the last.

Proponents of the $8,000 credit for first-time buyers and the $6,500 credit for move-up buyers made it clear during the debate on Capitol Hill that the benefits would not be renewed when they expire. And a lobbyist for the National Assn. of Realtors confirmed that at the group's annual convention last month.

Lawmakers "made us promise practically in blood that we would not come back" for another extension, Linda Goold, the Realtor group's director of tax policy, told her members.

During the debate, Sen. Johnny Isakson (R-Ga.), a former real estate broker and a longtime proponent of the tax credit, promised his colleagues, "This is the last extension."

And Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.) said, "It is important that this tax credit does not become a permanent fixture of the tax code."

As it stands now, buyers who meet the income eligibility requirements have until midnight April 30, 2010, to ink a deal and must close by midnight June 30 to qualify.

Congress enacted the original $7,500 first-time buyer credit as part of the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008. But because the credit had to be paid back it was more like a no-interest loan than a true credit and there were relatively few takers.

So in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, lawmakers upped the ante to a maximum of $8,000 for new buyers who closed before Dec. 1. They also said the new credit need not be paid back unless the taxpayer moves out within the three-year period following the purchase.

This second attempt at stimulating sales worked so well that the housing lobby implored Congress to help keep the momentum going. So lawmakers extended the deadline for first-timers and added a "long-term resident" tax credit for repeat buyers who owned their current home for at least five consecutive years out of the last eight.

Incidentally, the credit is not a flat $8,000 for new buyers and $6,500 for repeat buyers. It is 10% of the purchase price up to those ceilings. There is no credit if the price of the house is above $800,000